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Updated: 7 hours 58 min ago

Peru Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

9 hours 7 min ago
We forsee growth of 3.2% in 2018 and 3.5% for next year. The forecasts take into account a favourable international environment for Peru. On the domestic front we are assuming a calmer political scenario, a fiscal stimulus in 2018 and a commencement of the deficit reduction by the government next year.

ECB Watch | Draghi calm on recent data but more vigilant on protectionism

11 hours 38 min ago
The ECB left the main lines of its forward guidance unchanged. Draghi did not sound much worried about growth moderation but vigilant on protectionism. There was no discussion on the next steps of monetary policy.

Presentation Latin America Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

April 26, 2018
Latin America maintains its recovery amidst external turbulence. Growth will increase from 1.2% in 2017, to 1.4% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. The main external risks center on protectionism and on China. On the domestic front, political noise and the possible delay in public and private investment is an upside risk in a number of countries.

Infographic Latin America Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

April 26, 2018
Latin America maintains its recovery amidst external turbulence. Growth will increase from 1.2% in 2017, to 1.4% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. The main external risks center on protectionism and on China. On the domestic front, political noise and the possible delay in public and private investment is an upside risk in a number of countries.

China | Not time to say goodbye to HKD peg

April 26, 2018
The HKD depreciated from the strong end of its narrow band of 7.75 to near its weak end of 7.85 against the USD in mid-April, touching its lowest level since 2005. Despite some rising voices of questioning the sustainability of the linked exchange rate in the market, we firmly believe that foregoing the USD peg is an unlikely scenario in the short term for Hong Kong.

Turkey | The CBRT raises rates by 75 bps

April 26, 2018
The Central Bank (CBRT) hiked its de-facto policy rate (late liquidity window, LLW) by 75 bps to 13.75%, in line with our expectation but slightly higher than the median market call, 50 bps. At two digits inflation, anti-inflationary policies should be at the forefront of economic strategies in a comprehensive way, including further tightening if needed.

U.S. | Long-term yields edge up yet fundamentals remain unchanged

April 24, 2018
Long-term yields have moved up as the 10-year Treasury yield is expected to cross the 3.0% threshold – a level not seen since January 2014. The climb in long-term yields is backed by an increase in inflation expectations.

More ambition for the European Fintech

April 23, 2018
Fintech refers to the application of new technologies to financial services. Although the term is often used narrowly to refer to start-ups, the fact is that financial institutions and major technology companies also form an active part of the digital transformation of financial services.

Are cryptocurrencies an option for Latin America’s central banks?

April 23, 2018
The issue of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ether, among many others, has been increasing in recent years. Their use has been driven by the wish to use a decentralised currency that is not controlled by a central bank. Paradoxically, the technological development that made it popular is also within reach of the authorities.

Spain Regional Watch. Second quarter 2018

April 23, 2018
The improvement of the foreign sector is the main key to review upward growth in Spain in 2018 (up to 2.9%), allowing more dynamism in the CC.AA. more exposed to the outside. In 2019, the Autonomous Communities of the North will take greater prominence in the growth (of 2.5%), by the acceleration of exports and the lower boost of tourism and domestic demand.

Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. April 2018

April 21, 2018
Annual report of the Financial System Stability Council (CESF). The value of construction company activity fell by 3.5% in 2017. The markets steadied after the temporary upturn in volatility. Adjustments to the methodology for determining the degree of systemic importance of multiple purpose banking institutions.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 20 April 2018

April 20, 2018
Highlights: FSB publishes toolkit to mitigate misconduct risk. EBA consults on guidelines regarding exposures to high risks. EC asks for feedback on extending transition for requirements on exposures to CCPs. ESMA publishes negative opinion on AMF’s proposal. PRA publishes its business plan. US Agencies consult on a phase-in period for the new CECL accounting standards.

Argentina Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

April 20, 2018
The economy continues to grow but at a slower pace due to the impact of a severe drought that affects the central agricultural area at the beginning of 2018. Inflation accelerates more than expected in the first four months of the year, but will be reduced in the second half due to: i) exchange stability and ii) wage agreements in line with the 15% target.

Eurozone | Solid growth and broadly unchanged projections, with protectionist risks

April 20, 2018
Confidence weakened in 1Q18 and hard data start to reflect this softer mood, although fundamentals remain robust. We keep our growth forecasts broadly unchanged, reaching 2.3% in 2018 and 1.8% in 2019. Inflation is expected to hover around 1.5% during 2018-19 but increasing gradually, driven by core components. Risks are tilted to increased protectionism.

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