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Peter Sylvestre
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FOR PYONGYANG, A PERFECT STORM
Peter Sylvestre*
24-05-2010
April/May 2010 ATI Magazine
SEOUL — As the 98th birthday (April 15) of the late Kim Il-sung nears, a vortex of events threatens to up-end his eternal slumber in Pyongyang. The regime he founded and led (physically, at least) until 1994 is facing what could be its greatest crisis since General Douglas MacArthur pushed north of the 38th parallel in the fall of 1950.
A regime that showed surprising resilience in the wake of the Soviet collapse, a dynastic succession and widespread hunger in the final decade of the 20th century, is yet again facing the prospect of succession in the midst of still further (how can that be possible) economic disintegration. This round, however, threatens to be far more destabilising.
The unfolding drama began in August 2008 when Chairman Kim Jong-il dropped out of sight. When he re-emerged months later, his health had visibly deteriorated.
During that time, speculation abounded over the inside manoeuvering among Kim Jong-il’s closest confidants, including younger sister, Kim Kyong Hee, and her husband, Jang Song-taek, to install Jong-il’s youngest son, Jong-eun, over his older brother, Pyong-il.
It was a development that apparently angered Kim Jong-il, who saw the manoeuvering as a threat to his own power. But in February, the couple was seen accompanying the Chairman when he was giving on-the-spot guidance tours.
Rumours that Jong-eun’s birthday (January 8) world become a national birthday proved true. And, on that day, North Korea’s National Defence Commission contributed a four-page spread to Chosun People’s Army, the official publication of the Ministry of the People’s Armed Forces, that implied support for the dynastic succession.
US officials concluded in March that the leader only had three days to live, an
assessment disputed by 21st Century Orchestra of Moscow conductor Pavel Ovsyannikov, who was quoted the same month as saying that the Chairman was in fine form and using both hands.
Those hands, seen in photographs as having the white fingernails and darker skin indicative of renal failure, gave rise to assertions that he is undergoing dialysis.
Meanwhile, rumours of purges and reshuffling continue to swirl.
Ri Chol, the North’s ambassador to Switzerland since 1988, and apparent minder of the three Kim sons when they are said to have studied at a Swiss boarding school, is reportedly being replaced.
Another old-timer, Kim Tong-un, who directed the Chairman’s secretive international finances as director of the ‘Room 39’ bureau for 36 years, has been replaced. Several septuagenarian and octogenarian marshals and generals have been replaced by younger officers, who are said to have served in the military’s political department.
So far, few events predicted to presage the emergence of Kim Jong-eun have materialised — including his non-appearance at the 12th Supreme People’s Assembly in Pyongyang on April 9. The last rumoured event was Kim Il-sung’s birthday on April 15, when official portraits of Kim Jong-eun were rumoured to be ready for issue.
All of this smoke, mirrors, rumours, hearsay and non-events would not be so ominous if it were not for more substantiated events, the chaotic turbulence that has sent the creaking economy crashing to the floor. The situation is so dire that twice (in January) the Chairman publicly expressed disappointment in the food distribution system in the official Rodong Shinmun newspaper.
The chronic food shortage was exacerbated by a resoundingly disastrous scheme to destroy private markets. Last November 30, without warning, North Korea issued a new currency that would be exchanged at 1:100 with the old notes. As exchange of old won was limited to 100,000, with the ‘currency reform’ wiping out the cash stashes of private marketeers. To compound matters, transactions in foreign currency were likewise forbidden. On paper, this may have been seen as a good idea by the economically-ignorant apparatchiks in Pyongyang, but in the provinces, the policy (and the new won) went down like a lead balloon.
By January, the new currency had plunged to the level of the old as private marketeers packed up. Rice soared 20 times in one month, leading to rumoured outbursts of public anger against the party and Chairman.
Who was the reported genius behind this monumental display of ignorance? Why, none other than Kim Jong-eun himself. If so, that could explain why the son is keeping a low profile. It is widely speculated that others are taking the fall for now, and that Jong-eun is simply waiting for a more propitious time to make his debut. The question is whether such a window will ever appear in the lifetime of the father. The vigil continues!
*Peter Sylvestre is Seoul Correspondent for ATI. |
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