Taiwan’s poor trade result: Downturn looming in global electronics?

TAIPEI - Taiwan's trade data has disappointed again, with exports contracting sharply by 13.9% y/y in June, from a 3.8% decline in May. For the first half, exports fell 7.1% y/y, significantly lower than forecast. 

Exports to major trade partners declined across the board, suggesting that global demand remained poor. Exports to Mainland China and Hong Kong continued recent weakness and led the decline (down 17.1% y/y) in June. Exports to US, Europe, and Japan contracted by 8.2%, 9.8% and 11.2% respectively.
ANZ Bank says the data confirms its conjecture on the potential downturn of global electronic cycle. Electronics shipments fell by 10.8% y/y in June, from -4.4% in May, declining for four straight months.
In the first half, this year, electronic products accounted for 32.8% of Taiwan’s exports. In terms of industrial production, electronic components and tech products made up 29.4% and 8.8% respectively of its manufacturing sector.
In light of the soft trade data, ANZ has revised downwards  Taiwan’s 2015 GDP forecast to 2.81%, from 3.78% previously. “With Greece turmoil, external environment will remain challenging,” ANZ says. “Domestic consumers will start to spend cautiously as volatility of global financial markets has heightened. Both factors prompt us to adjust our growth forecast accordingly.” www.live.anz.com (ATI).