Taiwan’s exports plunge 16.9% in November

TAIPEI - Taiwan’s exports declined by 16.9% y/y in November, compared with an 11% drop in October, consistent with poor export orders (-5.3%) in October. Imports declined 13.7% y/y, from -20.0% previously.

The better-than-expected import figure was partly due to a pickup in machinery imports due to semiconductor investment, which may have given a one-off boost to imports. The trade surplus narrowed significantly to US$2.75 billion in November, down from US$6.12 billion.
Exports to major trading partners fell across the board, reflecting poor global external demand, with a decline of 19.6% y/y to China and Hong Kong leading the decline in major trading economies. Exports to the ASEAN were also weak, falling 19.3%. Shipments to the US and Europe fell 10.9% and 6.1% respectively.
ANZ Bank says the trade data suggests the risk of Taiwan recording GDP contraction in Q4. In October and November, exports declined 13.9% y/y on average, the same as the rate in Q3, suggesting external demand has not picked up.
“If December trade contracts more, the growth outlook for Q4 will be severely challenged. Taiwan may not be able to achieve full-year growth of 1.0% in 2015. For 2016, whether Taiwan’s external outlook will recover largely hinges on the economic recovery of US and Europe.” www.live.anz.com (ATI).