Muslim parties take 30% of early vote as Indonesia heads for Coalition government

JAKARTA - In a dramatic turn of events, Indonesian politics finds itself in state of flux ahead of crucial Presidential elections on July 9. Early poll tallies, often a reliable indicator of actual outcomes, of Indonesia’s April 9 Parliamentary elections point towards a likely fragmented make-up in the House of Representatives, one characterised by a hotchpotch of Coalition parties.

In a research note, BBVA Bank says none of the 12 contesting parties seem to have achieved the minimum threshold of votes needed to field a Presidential candidate on their own. As anticipated, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the main Opposition party led by former President, Megawati Soekarnoputri, emerged on top - but PDI-P’s victory was far less convincing than widely expected (19% of national votes against expectations of nearly 30%), which suggests that the party failed to capitalise on its immensely popular Presidential nominee,  Joko Widodo, better known as ‘Jokowi’.

Under Indonesia’s Presidential nominating system, a party needs to garner 20% of the 560 seats in the national House of Representatives, or 25% of popular vote, to nominate a Presidential candidate or forge an alliance with other parties to reach either threshold.

Trailing the PDI-P with 14% of the popular votes is the Golkar party, the political machine of the late President Soeharto, now led by an oligarch and Presidential hopeful, Aburizal Bakrie. Not far behind in third place is the Great Indonesian Movement Party, or Gerindra, headed by former special-forces commander Prabowo Subianto, winning about 12% of the votes.

The Democrat Party of outgoing President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono stood a poor fourth with just 9%, reflecting voters’ frustration with rampant corruption and a recalcitrant bureaucracy that has plagued Indonesia.

Meanwhile, reversing years of declining vote share, four Islamic parties together garnered almost 30% of the votes, which places them in a key bargaining position with the three major parties in the ensuing drama of political jockeying to form a Coalition. www.bbvaresearch.com (ATI).