IATA tips 4.1% compound growth rate for air cargo over next five years

GENEVA - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects  international freight volumes to increase at a compound annual growth rate of 4.1% over the next five years. Emerging economies, particularly in the Middle East and Africa, will be the fastest-growing markets.

"This year, more than US$6.8 trillion worth of goods, equivalent to 35% of total world trade by value, will be transported around the world by air. So it is welcome to see a forecast for a return to growth for the air cargo sector after several years in the doldrumsm: says Tony Tyler, IATA Director-General and CEO. “An average of more than 4% growth for the next five years would be a marked improvement on the performance of recent years. Since 2011, for example, growth in freight tonnes has averaged just 0.63% per year."
Tyler said that to enhance air cargo competitiveness, the industry is aiming to cut average transit times by up to 48 hours by 2020. To achieve this, air freight is modernising its processes, improving quality and reliability, and widening the range of services offered.
A key component is the e-Freight project, which will render air cargo shipments paperless. As a first step, the industry is adopting the e-Air Waybill (e-AWB). In September 2014 global e-AWB penetration reached 19.4%, meaning the 2014 industry target of 22% is within reach.   
The IATA forecast is for the US, China and the UAE to each be adding more than 1 million tonnes of freight by 2018 compared to today. The UAE will have replaced Germany as the third largest market.
The fastest growing international routes will be between the Middle East and Asia, at 6.2% per year. Within Middle East (4.6%), North America to South America (3.9%), and Europe to Southern Africa (3.8%), will also grow strongly. 
By 2018, the 10 largest international freight markets will be the US (10,054,000 tonnes), China (5,639,000), the UAE (4,974,000), Germany (4,763,000), Hong Kong (4,648,000), Republic of Korea (3,487,000), Japan (3,480,000), the UK (2,808,000), Taiwan (2,350,000) and India (2,223,000). www.iata.org (ATI).