Export volume up 2% in 2016 but export value to remain flat: HKTDC

HONG KONG - The Hong Kong Trade Development Council is predicting that Hong Kong’s export volume will increase by 2% in 2016. However, as global economic growth is expected to remain weak and the US dollar will stay mostly strong next year, unit value is likely to be under pressure and may drop by 2%, leaving export value remaining flat in 2016.

HKTDC Director of Research Nicholas Kwan told a press conference that, although the global economy is facing multiple challenges, Hong Kong exporters should not be overly pessimistic because recent fluctuations in global trade are expected to stabilise gradually, with individual countries and regions such as the US and ASEAN expected to post moderate growth next year.

This would drive steady development of Hong Kong’s exports and lead to a situation of falling prices and increasing volumes.
 Kwan said that because oil and commodity prices remain weak on the back of a strong US dollar, thrifty consumption will continue to be the trend in overseas markets. Hong Kong companies should take note that retailers and importers would be very cautious with their order quantities, delivery dates and pricing, resulting in downward pressure on prices.

“The threat of global deflation, volatility in the financial markets, growing geopolitical tensions and concerns about terrorist attacks are all challenges and risks confronting Hong Kong exporters,” he said.   www.hktdc.com/research (ATI).