Did China’s growth fall below 7% in Q1 of 2015?

SINGAPORE – China’s growth may have fallen below 7% in the first quarter of 2015, according to ANZ Bank. It says weak economic activity data points to sub-7% growth, with fixed asset investment decreasing to the lowest level since 2001, gaining 13.9% y/y in January-February. Meanwhile, retail sales growth slowed to 10.7% y/y and industrial production growth eased to 6.8% y/y.    

The PBoC cut interest rates again on February 28, with one-year benchmark lending and deposit rates lowered by 25bps to 5.35% and 2.50% respectively. The ceiling of deposit rate has been raised to 130% of the benchmark level, reflecting the ongoing interest rate liberalisation, says ANZ.  
Export growth in RMB values terms surged considerably by 48.9% y/y in February, up from -3.2% in January, but import growth decreased by 20.1% y/y in February against -19.7% previously. The trade balance widened to RMB370.5bn (USD60.6bn), from RMB366.9bn (USD60.0bn) in the prior month.
CPI inflation picked up to 1.4% y/y in February, from 0.8% in previous month. On a monthly basis, CPI inflation rose to 1.2% as food prices increased during Chinese New Year. PPI inflation declined further to -4.8% y/y in February, down from -4.3% previously.
ANZ says that given the Government will focus on implementation of economic and structural reforms spelled out by the 3rd plenum this year, there is not much upside for economic growth. www.live.anz.com (ATI).