China, US to benefit most from AI growth - PwC

June 27, 2017

HONG KONG - Global GDP will be 14% higher in 2030 as a result of Artificial Intelligence (AI) – the equivalent of an additional US$15.7 trillion - to the global economy in 2030, according to new research by PwC. That US$15.7 trillion, it says, is more than the current output of China and India combined.

Labour productivity improvements are expected to account for over half of all economic gains from AI over the period 2016-2030.  Increased consumer demand resulting from AI-enabled product enhancements will account for the rest.

The greatest economic gains from AI will be in China (26% boost to GDP in 2030) and North America (14.5% boost), equivalent to a total of US$10.7 trillion and accounting for almost 70% of the global economic impact.

The report says -

North America will experience productivity gains faster than China initially, driven by its readiness for AI and the high fraction of jobs that are susceptible to replacement by more-productive technologies;
China will begin to pull ahead of the US’s AI productivity gains in 10 years, after it catches up on a slower build up to the technology and expertise needed;
Europe and Developed Asia will also experience significant economic gains from AI (9-12% of GDP in 2030); and
Developing countries will experience more modest increases (less than 6% of GDP) due to the much lower rates of adoption of AI technologies expected (including Latin America, Africa).   

“The analysis highlights how the value of AI enhancing and augmenting what enterprises can do is large, if not larger than automation,” says Anand Rao, Global Leader of Artificial Intelligence at PwC. “It demonstrates how big a game changer AI is likely to be – transforming our lives as individuals, enterprises and as a society.”

Included in the analysis, the PwC AI Impact Index pinpoints three business areas with the greatest AI potential in each of eight sectors. Areas identified include image-based diagnostics, on demand production and autonomous traffic control.

Overall, the biggest absolute sector gains will be in retail, financial services, and healthcare as AI increases productivity, product value and consumption. By 2030, an additional $9trn of GDP will be added from product enhancements and shifts in consumer demand, behaviour, as AI driven consumption gains overtake those of productivity. www.pwc.com (ATI).