Asian nations must check China as US weakens, says new report

SYDNEY - The United States will be unable to secure Asia this century and the region will need to craft a balance of power to counter China, according to a new report released today by Australia’s Centre for Independent Studies. “New institutional initiatives are urgently needed to reduce strategic distrust and the likelihood of dangerous misunderstandings and misjudgements,” says the report’s author, Dr Benjamin Herscovitch.

The report, titled ‘Preserving Peace as China Rises II: Preparing for a Post-American Asian Order’, proposes establishment of a closed-door government-to-government Indo-Pacific Dialogue; a public non-government Indo-Pacific Dialogue; and hotlines between the Chinese National Security Council (NSC) and its US and Indian counterparts.
 
He says the risk of war between the region's great powers will be ever present because of clashing territorial claims and competing strategic goals. Potential flashpoints include bitter territorial disputes between China and its neighbours and tensions between China and the United States over human rights and international law.
 
'New institutional initiatives are urgently needed to reduce strategic distrust and the likelihood of dangerous misunderstandings and misjudgements,' says Herscovitch.

“Asia must transition from a security system dependent on US primacy to a balance of power model capable of imposing sufficiently high costs on States that bully neighbours and threaten regional stability.”
 
He says there are promising signs that a new balance of power is emerging. India and ASEAN are on track to have the world's third and fourth biggest defence budgets (after China and the US) by mid-century, worth nearly US$300 billion and US$200 billion, respectively. Among the four key regional powers in 2050, China will account for 43% of total military spending, with the US accounting for 37% and India and ASEAN each accounting for roughly 10%. www.cis.org.au (ATI).