ANZ Bank sees Asia trade recession persisting despite cyclical factors

SINGAPORE - ANZ Bank says the failure of Singapore to turn the corner in export trade in latest statistics available suggests that Asia’s economic (particularly trade) data will continue to disappoint well into the US Federal Reserve’s  normalisation cycle. “The possibly short-lived tech cycle (particular smartphones) has cast a pall over the regional export outlook.” ANZ says.

“The continued lacklustre print in electronics exports (0.7% y/y vs mkt: 5.2%) echoes November trade prints in North Asia where the decline was largely driven by tech-related exports. 

“The structural element of this ongoing trade recession will persist even if the cyclical factors of the trade recession fade. Specifically, the increasingly services-led recovery in the US and higher degree of vertical integration in Chinese supply chains is trade negative for the region.” www.live.anz.com (ATI).