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Updated: 3 hours 39 min ago

Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data

8 hours 31 min ago
1. Introduction: why and how we use Big Data; 2.Geopolitical and social analysis; 3.The geography and the digital transformation

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 17 November 2017

November 17, 2017
Highlights: Council endorsed agreement on creditor hierarchy, IFRS 9 and large exposure. EC consulted on backstops for insufficient NPL provisions. ECB issued opinions on the current regulatory reform. EBA published implementation report on O-SIIs, and on internal models’ consistency. ESMA published final report on MMF regulation. BdE consulted on PAC and PAL guidelines.

The future of banking in Europe: Drivers and consequences of further consolidation

November 17, 2017
Some voices are defending the need for further consolidation as a way of fixing the problems remaining in the European banking system. While further consolidation has some advantages, it also implies some drawbacks and costs. This paper discusses the implications of consolidation for financial stability, solvency, efficiency, competition, digitalization and systemic risk.

Spain Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

November 17, 2017
The Spanish economy will grow 3.1% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018, two and three tenths less than what was estimated in July, in an environment of greater economic policy uncertainty. However, the positive inertia in activity data, the favorable international environment and the monetary policy will continue to favor growth. The adoption of reforms is indispensable.

Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. November 2017

November 16, 2017
The world financial system faces lesser risks, but vulnerabilities and regulatory challenges persist. In September house prices rose less than inflation. Negative differentiation of domestic assets due to uncertainty caused by the renegotiation of NAFTA. Adjustments to the risk diversification rule.

China’s role in Latin America: Participation & Consequences

November 16, 2017
This presentation touches various issues: evolution of bilateral trade and investment, LatAm’s export dependency on China, China’s OFDI and financial influence in LatAm and existing critiques on China’s role in LatAms and new opportunities.

A new challenge for banking

November 15, 2017
CBDCs are Central Bank-issued instruments that combine cryptography and DLTs to achieve four possible goals: improve interbank settlement, digitize cash to improve efficiency in payments, develop a new monetary policy tool to overcome zero-bound interest rates and increase surveillance and reduce financial system instability.

Madrid Economic Outlook. Second half 2017

November 15, 2017
The economy of Madrid grew by 3.7% in 2016. It will also keep growing by 3.4% in 2017 and by 2.7% in 2018. This will add around 175,000 new jobs in that period and unemployment shall drop to 10.5%. Although GDP and GDP per capita have already recovered pre-crisis levels, creating more and better jobs remain important challenges better jobs remain important challenges.

Tracking China Vulnerability in Real Time Using Big Data: The CVSI Index

November 15, 2017
We have developed a China Vulnerability Sentiment Index using Big Data. The CVSI index allows us to track the 4 different vulnerability components: SOEs, Shadow Banking, Housing Bubble & FX speculative.

Asturias Economic Outlook 2017

November 14, 2017
The economy of Asturias grew by 1.9% in 2016. It will grow by 2.4% in 2017 and by 2.3% in 2018. This will add around 12,300 new jobs in the period. Unemployment shall drop to 11.2%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita will be almost recovered, creating more and better jobs remains a challenge.

Fintech: key regulatory challenges

November 14, 2017
Transformations in banking as a result of the new digital age are challenging financial regulation and supervision. Benefits and risks from the transformation of financial services. The European Banking Authority’s approach to FinTech. Among other issues.

Turkey: The Central Bank of Turkey designs a mechanism to mitigate FX volatility

November 14, 2017
The CBRT announced yesterday they will start to auction foreign exchange (FX) hedging instruments to enhance tools to manage corporates’ currency risk. We elaborate the main goal of the new tool as to reduce the Turkish lira volatility by both enhancing liquidity and increasing financial depth in the currency market.

China | October indicators suggest growth moderation continues

November 14, 2017
October economic indicators announced today, together with the credit figures released yesterday, were all below the previous readings and the market consensus. As we predicted, the economy continued its moderation in Q3 due to the authorities’ policy initiatives. These policies include prudent monetary policy and regulatory tightening as well as the supply-side reform.

Uruguay Economic Outlook. Second half 2017

November 14, 2017
Uruguay will growth 3.2% this year. There will be the second fastest growing country in the region. We project a current account result of just 0.3% of GDP for 2018. We estimate that the dollar will end this year at $ 29.5 and $ 31.4 at the end of 2018. We have adjusted our estimate of inflation to 6.3% yoy and 7.0% yoy for 2017 and 2018 respectively

Uncertain impact of uncertainty

November 14, 2017
The economic impact of the tensions currently being experienced in Catalonia is difficult to gauge. One way in which attempts have been made to do so is by constructing indices that seek to calibrate the level of uncertainty felt by households and businesses.