Saturday, January 20 2018 | ASIA TODAY INTERNATIONAL - Reporting the Business that Matters in Asia
Updated: 49 min 50 sec ago
Weekly economic update focusing on the upcoming 4Q GDP data
Highlights: The EC published its first progress report on dealing with NPLs. EBA published its risk dashboard, and a report on DGS contributions. CNMV published guidelines for communicating commodity derivative positions under MiFID II. ESMA issued a consultation on measures to protect retail investors.
Growth stabilized at high levels and recent data suggest an uptick in activity at 4Q17. We revised upwards our growth forecasts for 2018 to 3.8% (+0.3pp), driven by an improved outlook and boost from tax reform in the US, a more gradual slowdown in China and the strengthening of domestic demand in the EZ. Central banks continue with a gradual normalization process.
The Spanish economy will grow 3.1% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018, in line with what was expected in November. Furthermore, despite economic policy uncertainty present in the environment, we expect the recovery to continue in 2019 (2.3%) and the improvement in the economy to start to entail a growth in salaries.
Banxico has updated its report on housing loan indicators. Payroll credit slows despite improvement in its granting conditions. Alert from the authorities about participation in “Initial Coin Offerings” schemes (ICO). The Financial System Stability Council (CESF) updates its balance of risks.
Higher oil prices and a more robust world growth contribute to the recovery cycle of the Colombian economy in 2018 and 2019. Inflation will continue decelerating, allowing the Central Bank to reduce their policy rate in 2018. Structural imbalances continue to adjust, even though the fiscal balance will face some challenges in 2019.
The Central Bank (CBRT) maintained policy rates unchanged, including the late liquidity window (LLW) at 12.75%, in line with expectations. The Bank reinforced the tight sentiment by adding some “verbal tightening” as observed in our Big-Data sentiment of the statement.
December indicators reported today, together with Q4 GDP outturns, marginally exceeded market expectations. For 2017, China’s economy achieved a soft-landing synchronized with the rest of the world. Looking ahead, the economy is expected to continue its moderation as the authorities’ stepped-up efforts to rein in shadow banking activities are set to weigh on growth.
The recent two unconventional RRR cuts suggest the authorities set out to dethrone RRR from a monetary loosening or tightening tool. Instead, the PBoC now uses RRR cuts for liquidity management purpose. As monetary policy framework is migrating to a “corridor system”, the traditional quantitative tools adjustments have to give their way to new price tools.
Basel III End Game. CRD V: progress and outstanding issues. EU’s financial architecture: roadmap and challenges. Sustainable Finance: Here to Stay. ECB’s supervisory priorities. Prospects in digital regulation.
The Mexican economy in 2018 will traverse a context of major sources of uncertainty, among which the renegotiations of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the presidential elections stand out.
Monetary policy took centre stage in the recent international crisis – as a weapon against stagnation and deflation, as an instrument for re-establishing financial stability and, in the case of the euro zone, as a crucial tool for combating the financial fragmentation which at one stage threatened the very survival of the euro.
The public pension system is a fundamental pillar of the welfare state. And for it to continue being so, it is necessary to modernise it and adapt it to the changes being undergone by Spanish society. Fortunately more and more people are reaching retirement age and are doing so with a longer life expectancy.
It is quite some time now since the term artificial intelligence (AI) broke free of the confines of science fiction and became part of current IT vocabulary. Indeed authorities and personalities as well-known as Leon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg frequently opine on the implications of this technology.
On 11 December last, Bitcoin started trading on the Chicago futures market (CBOE), and its value rose to more than US$15,000 in the first few days. These events have fuelled the debate about cryptocurrencies. Are we dealing with a revolution with firm foundations or a passing fever?